The Flyers’ playoff hopes are fleeting, leading some to buy into the idea the club should tank the rest of the season to increase their odds of securing a top pick in this year’s draft. And while that idea seems like a good one in a vacuum, it shouldn’t be the organization’s course of action.

The odds the Flyers make the playoffs are low. In fact, they’re extremely low. As of March 3, MoneyPuck.com gives the club a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs. Crazier things have happened. But the Flyers will likely be watching the postseason from the couch, at least according to the math.

The organization is in a rebuild. Some teams tank when doing so. The worse a team’s record, the higher chances they have at getting the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. 

But head coach John Tortorella won’t tank. He’s said it multiple times in recent months. The front office doesn’t seem like they’re going to execute a tank down the stretch, either. Any trades made before the March 7 trade deadline won’t be for the sake of making a trade. It will have to make sense. It will have to make the team better, whatever they may mean or look like.

The Flyers won’t lose on purpose. They’re going to try to win down the stretch. And that’s a good idea, as the team shouldn’t tank the rest of the way.

Tanking as a theory makes sense. It’s a way to accumulate high draft picks to draft top-tier players. Do that enough, and, eventually, a team will be good. But that’s only a theory. Not the actual idea being put into practice.

High draft picks don’t always equal future stars. Players fizzle out. Talent doesn’t always develop into skill. It’s not as easy as drafting someone high and they eventually turn into a star. A lot can happen to derail that.

Even if a front office hits on some of their high draft picks, a team will eventually need to surround those players at the NHL level. Two or three stars can’t carry a team to the promised land. Support and depth are needed. 

A part of tanking is building a bad roster on purpose. And that bad roster will likely surround those high draft picks when they start playing at the NHL level. That’s pointless.

The goal of a rebuilding team should be to build as good a roster as possible. Do that enough, and maybe you’ll luck into a star, or two. Or maybe you’ll build a good team that’s a player, or two, away from being a true Stanley Cup contender. The latter isn’t where the Flyers are right now. But they’re in a similar situation.

The Flyers aren’t horrific. They have some pieces in place, including highly-regarded rookie Matvei Michkov. Some of their other young players may never turn into stars. But they could certainly be part of a championship-caliber team in the future, especially if they continue to develop and grow.

The organization needs a top-line center. They’ve publicly said a 1C is a need. Sure, they could maybe acquire such a player in this year’s draft with a high draft pick. But to get a, or the, top pick, they’d have to do their best to lose as many games as possible to only have a shot.

The NHL isn’t like the NFL. The worst team doesn’t always land the top pick in the next draft. The NHL uses a lottery system. The league’s worst teams are only given a high-percentage chance of securing high picks. There’s always a chance that doesn’t happen.

Culture is also important in this New Era of Orange. Intentionally losing could hurt the locker room. It could make the franchise less attractive to potential free-agent targets, too.

People will hate the idea. But not tanking is the best path forward for the Flyers.

It’s better for the team to develop their young players, having them compete to the best of their abilities to truly find out if they can help the team win a championship in the future. If that lowers their chances of having a high pick in the upcoming draft, so be it.

Top picks don’t always become stars. It’s also better to be one or two players away than having a few stars with no supporting cast.

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