We have made it to San Antonio for the Final Four. After the lack of upsets and pure chalk all the way through the tournament, we have the potential to watch the greatest Final Four in the history of the sport, and statistically that is what we have in front of us.

We start with a battle of two teams in the SEC between Auburn and Florida, who all year long have battled for the top spot in the conference. Auburn, led by Johni Broome, had some speed bumps towards the end of the regular season but have looked like the best team in the country through their first four games of the tournament.

Florida had a scare in the Elite Eight against Texas Tech, but thanks to some clutch shooting from Walter Clayton Jr. and Thomas Haugh they came back from a double digit deficit to take a lead late to make it to the Final Four.

Florida took down Auburn on the road in the regular season, which cemented them as one of the best teams in the country and earned the Gators the respect they deserved. Walter Clayton Jr. has been nails so far in March Madness, scoring 20 points in three out of four games, including a 30-point game in the Elite Eight. Todd Golden, who is in the midst of his sixth year as Florida’s head coach, has created a team that can play fast with lots of good shooters, as the team shoots 35% from three-point range. As well as needing to score, big man Alex Condon will have his hands full against the Tigers, who boast a loaded frontcourt.

Broome headlines that Auburn frontcourt, scoring 22 and 25 points in his last two games to go along with 16 and 14 rebounds. In his words, “I played alright.” Broome is also surrounded by good scorers, including four guards who average double-digit points.

The difference in this game is going to be who controls the pace. Florida plays fast and Auburn has that ability, but doesn’t always like to. If Florida can get out to a fast start, Auburn is going to have a hard time keeping up and might have to get out of their comfort zone. I believe that will be the outcome, as Todd Golden will appear in his first national championship and bring Florida to their first since 2007.

Now onto Duke versus Houston. Saying Duke has been unstoppable would be an understatement when analyzing what third-year head coach Jon Scheyer has created with this young Duke squad. Headlined by future No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg, Duke has won three of their four games in the tournament by at least 20 points. Along with Flagg, Tyrese Proctor set a record earlier in the tournament with his shooting ability. He made 19 three-pointers in a three game span, the most for a Duke player since Jay Williams in 2001. In that timeframe, Flagg and Proctor have led the charge, but they have not faced a defense anything close to what Houston has to offer.

Kelvin Sampson has always put a defensive masterclass of a team onto the floor, but this one is different. After being in the Big 12 for just their second year and winning the conference both times, Sampson has himself a veteran-heavy team, starting a sophomore, two juniors, and two graduate students with a lot of tournament experience. His team can also score, and they showed that in the Elite Eight, beating Tennessee by 19 who ranked No. 3 nationally. This year, Houston ranks No. 10 in offensive efficiency on KenPom, the first time they are top-10 since 2021, when they lost to Baylor in the Final Four.

LJ Cryer, who was a member of Baylor’s national championship team in 2021, transferred to Houston and has been their leading scorer averaging 14.8 PPG, and has mixed in a 30-point game when the Cougars played Gonzaga in round two. As well as the scoring from Cryer, this Houston team is strong down low. J’wan Roberts, Ja’Vier Francis and Joseph Tugler, who took home the Lefty Driesell Defensive Player of the Year award, are a tough bunch and make it very difficult for teams to score in the paint. Duke does have 7’2″ freshman center Khaman Maluach, who has given teams fits all tournament long, but him being so young could allow the veteran forwards of Houston to figure out how to make it difficult for him. The Cougars also hold teams to an average of 58.3 PPG, in addition to averaging 7.9 steals and 4.6 blocks per game.

This has the chance to be the best game of the year. It is boys versus men, and the big question is can 18-year-old Cooper Flagg lead his team past a Cougars squad with so much tournament experience. My eyes tell me to take Duke after seeing what they have done all year long, but I have learned throughout the years to back veteran teams in March, and that’s what I am going to do here. Kelvin Sampson, and his suffocating defensive Cougars team, will reach the national championship for the first time since 1984.

Now onto the biggest and most watched game of the year, the national championship. I have the Florida Gators from the SEC facing off against the back-to-back Big 12 champion Houston Cougars. These teams have only faced off twice in history, with Houston winning both games. Their last matchup came in 1973, so it has been over half a century since they have seen each other. Weird but true, Todd Golden wasn’t born the last time these two teams faced off and Kelvin Sampson was 18.

This Florida team is more one-dimensional than the Duke team Houston played in the Final Four. They focus more on ball screens and shooting, as their three leading scorers are all guards and they shoot 35% from three and 47% from the field as a team. Unlike Duke, who shoots well but they like to drive and lob more than Florida. LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, and Emanuel Sharp will have their hands full having to match up with these guards.

Houston is going to try to expose the inside of this Florida defense if I had to guess. It is where I see them having the most success against Alex Condon, a sophomore center who is skinnier than Houston’s bigs and has been dealing with an ankle injury he suffered in the Elite Eight. Forcing Florida to take contested mid-range shots and shoot from behind-the-arc should be the game plan for this Houston defense.

If Florida can figure out a way to get to the basket and/or get Condon good looks inside they will have a chance to rout this Houston team just based on their athletic ability. Also, if Clayton Jr. or Martin can find a way to get hot with their shooting, it will be the difference for the Gators.

Now for my pick. I have gone back and forth on this one, with two totally different teams and different styles of play matching up with each other. It’s a toss up on who can win this one, but I am going to have to go with the Houston Cougars to cut down the nets. At the end of the day, like I mentioned previously, I have learned to back tournament experience and veterans in March and Houston has both. With Kelvin Sampson having made 21 tournaments throughout his career and building himself a home-grown team with upperclassmen, I think they can will their way past this Florida team and bring the first ever national championship trophy back to Houston University.

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